Las tendencias de declive observadas en la confianza en la gestión/actuación de los dos partidos anticipaban el escenario de crisis del bipartidismo de 2015, sugiriendo su incorporación como elemento de su «imagen de partido». Del análisis se concluye la estrecha relación existente entre la valoración de la gestión/actuación de ambos partidos con su intención de voto.
#RETROSPECTIVE VOTING MEANING SERIES#
Se analizan cuatro series del banco de datos del Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas, con la valoración de la gestión/actuación del Partido Popular y del Partido Socialista Obrero Español, así como las series de intención de voto a los dos partidos. Tras introducir brevemente algunos conceptos explicativos del voto desde el punto de vista de su influencia a largo, medio y corto plazo, se efectúa un análisis desde el enfoque del modelo de voto retrospectivo. The retrospective voting behavior of Korean voters differs between party list and district level ballots. The results imply that Korean voters consider various aspects of government performance, such as the conditions of human rights and relationships with other countries, rather than just focusing on the economy. By using multinomial logistic regression models, this article finds that among the six retrospective evaluation categories, judgments of national economic performance at the national level, human rights, and foreign policy have a statistically significant impact on the likelihood of voting for the incumbent party in party list vote choice, whereas only voters’ evaluation of foreign policy matter in the district level vote decision. Specifically, this article examines the effects of voters’ retrospective economic evaluations of economic performance at the national and personal levels, human rights, corruption, welfare protection, and foreign policy on vote choice for the incumbent party in the 2016 Korean legislative election in which voters had two ballots: one for the party list vote and one for the district vote. To fill these omissions, this article tests a comprehensive retrospective performance voting model in a mixed electoral system. Second, there is little research that examines the difference in the effects of voters’ retrospective evaluations on two different ballots in mixed electoral systems. First, there is little research that considers several retrospective evaluations together using an incumbent voting model. A good deal of scholarship has examined this electoral mechanism, but the extant studies have two omissions. Performance-based retrospective voting is a fundamental mechanism of democracy.
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